The 2018 forecast for the global energy market spells renewable energy playing a powerful role in the future, according to BP the oil giant. The Energy Outlook edition highlights the forces shaping the global energy transition and considers a plethora of scenarios and is based on possible implications of different judgements and assumptions. Spencer Dale, group chief economist, explained that by 2040 oil, gas, coal, and non-fossil fuels would account to around a quarter of the world’s energy and about 40% of the increase in energy demand would be met by renewable energy. With the current trends continuing the renewables would grow by 400% by 2040, but would still account for about 14% of all the global energy demand.
The expansion would reportedly be led by China, and the nation is expected to continue its dominance, and be followed by developing countries like India. The growth would be enabled by the steep decreases in cost primarily by wind and solar. Renewable energy would be in a position to compete against other fuels, as subsidies would be phased-out by mid-2020s.
Meanwhile, it is expected to find an increase in energy demand that would be led by China and India. Apart from which, carbon emissions also reportedly would rise by 10% by 2040. And, even though this is reportedly slower than in the past it would remain deficient to meet the Paris climate Agreement goals. Bob Dudley, group chief executive stated that there would be a need for a more decisive break from the past to restrict warming to lower than 2 degrees. He added that they would need to consider that carbon pricing would be a key element as it offered incentives for all. The incentives would percolate to consumers using energy efficiently and producers supplying low-carbon forms of energy. Dale reiterated that they were seeing rising competition between the numerous energy sources, which were driven by copious energy supplies and sustained improvements in energy efficiency.